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    ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES (RCL)

    RCL Q2 2025: Strong Close-In Bookings Bolster H2 Yield Outlook

    Reported on Jul 29, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$352.00Last close (Jul 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$325.35Open (Jul 29, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-26.65(-7.57%)
    • Accelerating Demand & Strong Booking Trends: Executives emphasized a notable acceleration in close-in bookings and robust pre-cruise spend, especially among millennials, which together are driving higher net yields and revenue growth.
    • Innovative Product & Destination Pipeline: The strong slate of upcoming launches such as Star of the Seas, Celebrity XL, and new Royal Beach Club destinations—coupled with future projects like Perfect Day Mexico and river cruising—reinforces a premium, differentiated product portfolio that is expected to generate sustainable growth.
    • Enhanced Loyalty & Customer Engagement: Ongoing efforts to integrate and leverage the cobranded credit card with the loyalty program, along with targeted digital innovations, are designed to boost repeat bookings and elevate customer lifetime value, further supporting long-term earnings expansion.
    • Reliance on close-in demand and shorter booking windows: The executives noted strong last-minute bookings—primarily by younger consumers—that might compress the traditional long-lead booking cycle. This shift could make yield management less predictable and pose risks if consumer behavior changes.
    • Operational challenges with new ship launches and ramp-ups: Discussions around the timing drag from Star of the Seas and initial ramp-up for new destinations like the Royal Beach Club raise concerns over short-term yield compression and execution risks that might impact margins and guest satisfaction.
    • Cost pressures from new destination integration: Extra expenses related to acquisitions such as Costa Maya—as mentioned in the Q&A following the related discussions—could lead to margin compression if these new ventures do not meet operational or profitability expectations.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    10.4%

    The 10.4% increase reflects a continuation of earlier capacity expansions, higher ticket pricing, and stronger onboard spending observed in previous periods (e.g., a $842 million increase in Q1 2024 and a $271 million increase in Q1 2025 ), further boosted by improved close-in demand pricing and lower costs.

    Passenger Ticket Revenues

    10.8%

    The 10.8% growth builds on prior strong gains from increased ticket prices and capacity enhancements—such as the 34.0% increase in Q1 2024 (a $645 million jump due to higher fares and a 9.4% capacity boost ) and the 7.9% rise in Q1 2025 driven by yield and capacity growth —indicating sustained demand and favorable market pricing.

    Onboard and Other Revenues

    9.5%

    The 9.5% increase is supported by ongoing capacity growth and improved yield strategies. Prior periods saw a 19.9% jump in Q1 2024 primarily from a 9.4% capacity increase and pricing improvements , and a 5.8% gain in Q1 2025 from similar factors ; these combined initiatives are now further enhancing onboard spending revenue.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Yield Growth

    FY 2025

    2.6% to 4.6%

    3.5% to 4.0%

    raised

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2025

    $14.55 to $15.55

    $15.41 to $15.55

    raised

    Capacity Growth

    FY 2025

    5.5%

    6%

    raised

    Net Cruise Costs (Excluding Fuel)

    FY 2025

    -0.1% to +0.9%

    +0.3%

    no change

    Fuel Expense

    FY 2025

    $1.14 billion (59% hedged)

    $1.14 billion (66% hedged)

    no change

    Adjusted EBITDA Growth

    FY 2025

    15%

    17%

    raised

    Leverage

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    mid-two turns

    no prior guidance

    Net Yield Growth

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    2% to 2.5%

    no prior guidance

    Capacity Growth

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    3%

    no prior guidance

    Net Cruise Costs (Excluding Fuel)

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    6% to 6.5%

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted EPS

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    $5.55 to $5.65

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Consumer Demand

    Q1 2025 highlighted strong demand with record WAVE season performance, high consumer confidence, and willingness to spend on leisure travel. Q4 2024 noted very positive sentiment driven by robust wealth, strong labor markets, and elevated spending. Q3 2024 reported continued elevated demand patterns with strong close‐in bookings and onboard revenue.

    Q2 2025 reported robust consumer sentiment with approximately 75% of consumers planning to spend the same or more on travel, increased close-in bookings, and higher onboard spending—all powered by new ship demand and young demographic appeal.

    Consistent high consumer demand persists while booking behavior evolves toward spontaneity and an increasing focus on younger demographics.

    Yield Growth

    Q1 2025 reported a robust 5.6% net yield increase and full-year expectations between 2.6%–4.6%. Q4 2024 delivered double-digit yield growth (11.6% in 2024) with lowered guidance for 2025 (2.5%–4.5%). Q3 2024 showed 7.9% YOY yield growth, setting a high benchmark.

    Q2 2025 achieved a 5.2% net yield growth in constant currency, but noted moderation ahead due to challenges like the operational ramp-up of new ships, with Q3 expected to face a headwind from these timing issues.

    After historically robust yield performance, there is a shift toward more moderate yield growth influenced by new ship integration and ramp-up timing challenges.

    Pricing Strategy

    Q1 2025 emphasized premium onboard spending, strong customer value perceptions, and promotional tactics that drove quality demand. Q4 2024 underlined strong pricing with higher APDs and innovative private destination packages. Q3 2024 discussed stable pricing enhanced through AI-driven yield management.

    Q2 2025 continued a focus on premium pricing strategies using strong digital channels that support high onboard and pre-cruise spending, contributing to improved APDs and price integrity.

    The company consistently emphasizes a strong value proposition and premium pricing across its channels, now increasingly leveraging digital integration without major shifts in sentiment.

    New Ship and Destination Pipeline

    Q1 2025 announced major fleet expansions including Star of the Seas, Celebrity Xcel, and Celebrity River along with exclusive private destinations. Q4 2024 introduced new initiatives such as Celebrity River Cruises and expanded destination strategies including Perfect Day Mexico. Q3 2024 focused on the success of Icon class expansion and announced additional new destinations.

    Q2 2025 emphasized strong demand for new ships, notably Star of the Seas and Celebrity XL, and highlighted robust early demand for Royal Beach Club Paradise Island, reinforcing the focus on exclusive destination-led experiences.

    The focus on fleet and destination innovation remains robust, though Q2 2025 places greater operational emphasis on new ship performance while earlier periods also stressed expansion into river cruising and other private destinations.

    Operational and Ramp-Up Challenges

    Q1 2025 pointed to timing issues, noting that the late entry of Star of the Seas was expected to impact Q3 yield due to a slower ramp-up. Q4 2024 mentioned timing aspects regarding dry dock days and ship integrations. Q3 2024 noted supply chain and dry dock cost timing challenges affecting operations.

    Q2 2025 provided detailed discussion on new ship challenges, with Star of the Seas and Celebrity XL facing ramp-up periods that created yield headwinds (e.g., 150 basis points drag in Q3) and issues related to dry dock timing.

    Recurring integration and timing challenges persist, particularly around new ship deliveries and ramp-up periods, underscoring the company’s ongoing need to balance operational excellence with growth initiatives.

    Customer Loyalty and Engagement

    Q1 2025 showcased strong loyalty performance with nearly 40% of bookings from loyalty members and robust digital integration across platforms. Q4 2024 introduced a reciprocity program across brands along with over 300 digital enhancements to the guest experience. Q3 2024 emphasized increased onboard engagement driven by AI and pre-cruise purchases.

    Q2 2025 continued to stress digital integration with nearly 50% of onboard purchases via the mobile app and strong loyalty program performance, while also noting that a cobranded credit card program is under development to further enhance customer engagement.

    Loyalty and digital engagement have been consistently strengthened; the initiatives now lean more heavily on mobile adoption and data-driven personalization to enrich guest experiences.

    Capital Expenditure Commitments and Financial Risk

    Q1 2025 provided general comments on strong financial positioning but few specific CapEx details. Q4 2024 detailed a $5 billion CapEx commitment (split between new builds and non-new builds) and highlighted integration cost risks with new destination projects. Q3 2024 discussed strategic investments such as Perfect Day Mexico and dry dock cost challenges, along with key refinancing actions.

    Q2 2025 reaffirmed a $5 billion CapEx commitment with clear allocation toward new ships like Star of the Seas and Celebrity XL, along with non-ship investments; the discussion emphasized strong cash flow generation to support these investments while managing integration cost risks (e.g., Costa Maya port acquisition).

    The company remains committed to high levels of capital investment, supported by its robust cash flow, while continuing to manage integration costs; this strategy has been consistent with only slight adjustments over time.

    Capital Structure and Leverage

    Q1 2025 stressed strong liquidity with $4.5 billion and plans to push leverage below 3x. Q4 2024 noted a liquidity position of $4.1 billion and forecast further reduction in leverage to mid–to-high 2x. Q3 2024 celebrated a return to a fully unsecured capital structure, with significant refinancing reducing debt costs and leverage soon falling within target metrics.

    Q2 2025 reported an improved liquidity position of $7.1 billion, maintained investment-grade ratings, and outlined proactive debt reduction strategies targeting leverage at mid-two turns by year-end, reflecting continued strength in the balance sheet.

    There is a clear progression toward improved capital structure and reduced leverage, with liquidity strengthening considerably over time and consistent emphasis on investment-grade metrics and proactive debt management.

    Macroeconomic Uncertainty Impact

    Q1 2025 acknowledged heightened macroeconomic uncertainty by widening guidance ranges due to geopolitical noise, though confident consumer behavior helped offset concerns. Q4 2024 downplayed uncertainty by citing strong fundamentals such as wealth, wage growth, and low unemployment. Q3 2024 further emphasized positive macro trends supporting leisure spending.

    Q2 2025 reflected a return to normal guidance practices with much less emphasis on geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty, indicating that earlier concerns have largely subsided.

    Initial macroeconomic uncertainty noted in Q1 has diminished considerably over time as favorable economic fundamentals reassert themselves, leading to a more normalized outlook in Q2 2025.

    Cost Pressures and Margin Compression

    Q1 2025 noted modest net cost increases (e.g., 0.1%) and strong margins (with EBITDA margin improvements) despite expected headwinds in Q3 due to new venture ramp-ups. Q4 2024 reported higher stock-based compensation impacting costs and slightly lower yield growth expectations, while still emphasizing cost control. Q3 2024 mentioned challenges from dry dock and integration costs but maintained focus on margin-driven investments.

    Q2 2025 discussed ongoing cost pressures from new ship integrations and venture ramp-ups, with net cruise cost guidance for the full year at around 0.3% growth; these pressures are partially offset by effective cost discipline and fuel hedging strategies, though yield headwinds remain.

    Persistent cost pressures due to new investments and slower yield ramp-up continue to be a concern, but disciplined cost management practices help mitigate margin compression; overall, challenges remain similar with slight variations in magnitude over time.

    1. Demand Trends
      Q: How are closing bookings accelerating?
      A: Management explained that closing demand is accelerating strongly with higher onboard spend and guest engagement. Investments in fleet, destinations, and digital channels are fueling this trend, underscoring solid consumer confidence.

    2. Yield Impacts
      Q: What yield improvement if close demand stays?
      A: Management noted that if the current closing-booking pattern persists, yields in the back half of the year are expected to improve, though the exact boost remains difficult to precisely quantify.

    3. 2028 Outlook
      Q: Will 2028 earnings meet Perfecta outcomes?
      A: Management expressed confidence that with new ships and diverse destinations coming online, earnings in 2028 could see a significant step-up, potentially exceeding Perfecta targets as guest demand and operational advancements build momentum.

    4. Loyalty & Card
      Q: What about loyalty credit card plans?
      A: Management confirmed they already have a co-branded credit card tied to their loyalty program and are working closely with the provider to enhance integration, which should further boost guest retention and value.

    5. Beach Club Ramp
      Q: How will Royal Beach Club ramp up be managed?
      A: Management described a gradual ramp-up for Royal Beach Club, beginning with limited capacity to ensure operational excellence, with dynamic pricing and strong early sales indicating robust demand.

    6. Attach Rate Nassau
      Q: What attach rate is expected at Nassau?
      A: Management estimates that approximately 33% of the 3,000,000 expected Nassau guests will opt for the Beach Club, reflecting strong initial take-up supported by flexible, dynamic pricing.

    7. River Strategy
      Q: Can you outline your river cruise plans?
      A: Management is confident about launching innovative river cruise concepts with differentiated ship designs and curated shore experiences, aiming to rapidly grow capacity and meet the strong market demand.

    8. CapEx Outlook
      Q: Is $5B CapEx annual expected in future years?
      A: While precise guidance isn’t provided beyond this year, management indicated that a similar mix—around $5B annually—of new builds and non-ship investments appears appropriate as the business continues to expand.

    Research analysts covering ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES.