Executive Summary

Strong beat on EPS and slight revenue miss: Q2 Adjusted EPS was $4.38 vs S&P Global consensus of ~$4.08* (beat by ~$0.30) on $4.538B revenue vs ~$4.549B* (slight miss), driven by stronger close-in demand, lower costs (timing), and below-the-line favorability (TUI JV, lower net interest) . Q2 revenue/EBITDA actuals vs estimates: $4.538B vs ~$4.549B*, Adj. EBITDA ~$1.851B vs ~$1.744B* .
Guidance raised again: FY25 Adjusted EPS increased to $15.41–$15.55 from $14.55–$15.55 prior; Net Yields now +3.5–4.0% (as-reported); NCC ex-fuel ~+0.5% (as-reported) vs prior .
Q3 setup: Management guides Q3 EPS $5.55–$5.65, below current S&P Global consensus of ~$5.68* due to a ~150 bps yield headwind from late-quarter delivery/ramp of Star of the Seas and cost timing (+230 bps to NCC ex-fuel growth) .
Demand and commercial engine remain catalysts: Bookings accelerated since last call, close-in strength, digital channels driving pre-cruise purchases; management emphasizes loyalty, AI-driven pricing/personalization, and destinations as structural growth drivers .

Note: Items marked with * are S&P Global consensus values.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Close-in demand strength and onboard monetization: Net yield beat vs guidance on stronger close-in demand across products; onboard/pre-cruise spend exceeded prior years with higher participation/prices .
Margin expansion and cost control: Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 40.8%, up ~300 bps YoY; NCC ex-fuel growth was 180 bps better than guidance due entirely to timing shifts into H2 .
Strategic pipeline traction: Bookings for Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel “performing extremely well”; Royal Beach Club Paradise Island early demand “very robust,” reinforcing destination-led strategy . CEO: “We are well on our way to achieving our Perfecta financial targets by the end of 2027.” .

What Went Wrong

Q3 EPS guide below Street: Midpoint $5.60 vs S&P Global consensus ~$5.68*, reflecting ~150 bps yield drag from late Star of the Seas delivery and intentional ramp constraints, plus cost timing shifting into Q3 .
Cost cadence headwinds near term: Q3 NCC ex-fuel growth guided +6.4%–6.9% as-reported (incl. ~230 bps from Star delivery and Q2→Q3 cost timing), a sharp step-up vs Q2 .
Fuel and FX sensitivity persists: Q3 fuel expense guided at $298M with 64% hedged; FY25 fuel $1.143B, 66% hedged—still a notable P&L lever if prices move; 10% fuel change = ~$15M in Q3 sensitivity .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Margins (chronological: Q2’24 → Q1’25 → Q2’25)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.110	$3.999	$4.538
Diluted EPS ($)	$3.11	$2.70	$4.41
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$3.21	$2.71	$4.38
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$1.553	$1.402	$1.851
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	37.8%	35.1%	40.8%
Net Income ($USD Billions)	$0.858	$0.736	$1.214

Revenue Mix (Passenger Ticket vs Onboard)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Passenger Ticket Revenues ($USD Billions)	$2.887	$2.744	$3.199
Onboard & Other Revenues ($USD Billions)	$1.223	$1.255	$1.339

KPIs and Unit Economics

KPI	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Occupancy (Load Factor)	108.2%	108.8%	110.3%
Passengers Carried (Millions)	2.040	2.242	2.254
APCD (Millions)	12.233	12.658	12.942
Net Yields ($ per APCD, as-reported)	$269.38	$258.83	$283.56
NCC ex-Fuel per APCD ($)	$123.65	$129.54	$126.76

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

Metric	Consensus*	Actual
EPS ($)	~4.08*	4.38
Revenue ($USD Billions)	~4.549*	4.538
EBITDA ($USD Billions)	~1.744*	~1.851

Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus (Primary EPS Consensus Mean, Revenue Consensus Mean, EBITDA Consensus Mean). Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Non-GAAP adjustments: Q2 Adjusted EPS ($4.38) excludes items including amortization of Silversea intangibles ($2M), restructuring ($3M), and removes a gain on sale of noncontrolling interest (-$11M), resulting in slightly lower Adjusted vs GAAP EPS .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$14.55–$15.55	$15.41–$15.55	Raised (low end +$0.86)
Net Yields (as-reported)	FY 2025	+2.5% to +4.5%	+3.5% to +4.0%	Raised low end; narrowed range
NCC ex-Fuel per APCD (as-reported)	FY 2025	+0.1% to +1.1%	~+0.5%	Narrowed to midpoint
Adjusted EPS	Q3 2025	n/a	$5.55–$5.65	New
Net Yields (as-reported) vs 2024	Q3 2025	n/a	+2.3% to +2.8%	New
NCC ex-Fuel per APCD (as-reported)	Q3 2025	n/a	+6.4% to +6.9%	New
Fuel Expense	Q3 2025	n/a	$298M; 64% hedged	New
Fuel Expense	FY 2025	$1,140M	$1,143M	Slightly higher
D&A	FY 2025	$1,710–$1,720M	$1,700–$1,710M	Slightly lower
Net Interest (ex loss on extinguishment)	FY 2025	$940–$950M	$930–$940M	Lower

Notes: Q3 yield includes ~150 bps headwind from Star of the Seas delivery timing; NCC ex-fuel includes ~230 bps from Star timing and Q2→Q3 cost shifts .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
AI/tech and digital commerce	Emphasis on commercial engine; record WAVE, stronger close-in demand	“Infusing AI into almost everything,” 15M price points/day, app >30M downloads; 50% onboard purchases via app; loyalty members spend +25%	Scaling; deeper personalization driving yield/margin
Demand and close-in bookings	Record WAVE; strong close-in demand	Accelerated since last call; strong across products/markets; younger skew; pre-cruise participation up	Strengthening; later booking behavior
Destinations and newbuilds	Announced/beefed up destination pipeline; FY25 growth drivers	Star delivery in Aug; RBC Paradise Island Dec ‘25; Perfect Day MX ‘27; multiple ships through ‘28	Execution phase; near-term yield headwinds from ramp, long-term accretive
Regional mix	2025 guide context; not extensively detailed	2025 capacity mix: Caribbean 57% (Q3 42%), Europe 15% (Q3 28%), Alaska 6% (Q3 13%)	Caribbean-heavy near term
Capital returns/balance sheet	Investment-grade, buyback authorization	All three agencies investment-grade; liquidity $7.1B; dividend/buybacks opportunistic	Balance sheet stronger; returns expanding
Fuel/hedging	FY25 hedged 60% at below-market	Q3 fuel $298M, 64% hedged; FY25 fuel $1.143B, 66% hedged	Slightly higher hedge %; sensitivity disclosed

Management Commentary

“Our second quarter results exceeded expectations… We are also increasing our earnings guidance for the year and now expect adjusted earnings per share to grow 31% year over year.” — Jason Liberty, CEO .
“We are investing in a modern digital travel platform, infusing AI into almost everything we do… allowing us to expand wallet share.” .
“Bookings have accelerated since the last earnings call, particularly for close-in sailings… Guest spending onboard and pre-cruise purchases continue to exceed prior years.” .
“Our proven formula is working: moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, and strong cost discipline… on track to achieve our Perfecta targets.” .

Q&A Highlights

Demand momentum and forecast conservatism: Close-in demand acceleration noted; guide does not embed further acceleration, implying upside if trends persist .
Q3/Yield cadence drivers: ~150 bps yield headwind in Q3 from late Star delivery and intentional ramp; ~90 bps drag to Q4 yields from new ship timing and fewer dry docks YoY .
Loyalty and co-branded credit card: Current program tied to loyalty but “not in the way that fits our ambition”; expect “something very meaningful… very, very soon” .
Royal Beach Club attach rate: Expect ~33% of Royal’s Nassau guests to visit Paradise Island at scale; dynamic pricing and capacity management to balance demand .
Capital returns: Investment-grade ratings across agencies; continued investment plus competitive dividend and opportunistic buybacks; leverage expected mid-2x by year-end 2025 .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 vs S&P Global: EPS ~$4.08* vs Actual $4.38 (beat); Revenue ~$4.549B* vs $4.538B (slight miss); EBITDA ~$1.744B* vs ~$1.851B (beat) .
Q3 2025 guidance vs S&P Global: Guided EPS $5.55–$5.65 vs consensus ~$5.68* (implies slightly below Street at midpoint) .
Note: Values marked with * are S&P Global consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Demand/price remain robust with close-in acceleration; pre-cruise monetization and digital channels are expanding wallet share—supportive for H2 upside if momentum persists .
FY25 guide raised (EPS, yields) with lower net interest and tighter D&A—evidence of continued execution and below-the-line tailwinds (TUI JV) .
Near-term margin/cost cadence: Expect a Q3 step-up in NCC ex-fuel on Star delivery and timing, but the underlying cost discipline remains intact on full-year view .
Q3 setup conservative relative to consensus; any continued close-in strength or onboard attach could push results to high end or above .
Strategic pipeline is a multi-year earnings accelerator: new ships/destinations (Paradise Island ‘25, Cozumel ‘26, Perfect Day Mexico ‘27) and loyalty/credit card upgrades deepen the moat .
Balance sheet and capital returns improving: $7.1B liquidity, investment-grade at all three agencies, dividend and buybacks to supplement growth .
Watch sensitivities: 10% fuel price moves ~$15M in Q3; 1% yield change ~$40M in Q3—key levers into prints .

Additional reference data

Liquidity at 6/30/25: $7.1B (cash + undrawn RCFs); RCFs upsized to $6.4B; IG at all three agencies .
Fuel hedging: Q3 64% hedged; FY25 66% hedged; hedge cost/MT: ~$482 (2025) .
Star of the Seas delivery (July) with August debut; late Q3 ramp impacts yields/costs, but long-term demand strong .

Citations: All financials, KPIs, and guidance sourced from company press release and 8‑K; management commentary from Q2’25 earnings call transcript.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD (RCL)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary